Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France |
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| Authors: | Laura Di Domenico Chiara E Sabbatini Giulia Pullano Daniel Lvy-Bruhl Vittoria Colizza |
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| Institution: | 1.INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Paris, France;2.Orange Labs, Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services (SENSE), Chatillon, France;3.Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, France;4.Tokyo Tech World Research Hub Initiative, Institute of Innovative Research, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm. |
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| Keywords: | SARS-CoV-2 B 1 1 7 variants modelling social distancing curfew |
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