Predictive value of the standardized tuberculin test in children vaccinated with BCG]

The applicability of tuberculin test in children under five years of age, BCG-vaccinated during their first year of life, is a controversial matter. With a view to clarifying the subject the predictive positive value of the test in a region of high BCG coverage and low prevalence of tuberculous infection was analysed. From the proportion of strong reactors among infants and school-age children, vaccinated and not unvaccinated, the declining rate of BCG induced allergy and the increment rate of naturally acquired tuberculin sensitivity between the first and the seventh years of life were calculated. Those calculations allowed for the estimation of the respective values for the intermediate ages. The numbers of false positives to be expected were calculated by difference. Knowing the sensibility and the specificity (1 - FP) of the test, the BCG coverage and the prevalence of infection, the predictive values for tuberculous infection were: 1.52%, 4.22%, 8.26%, 14.86% and 23.00%, respectively from the first to the fifth years of life. Under these conditions, the probability of a strong reaction being provoked by BCG is very high, decreasing the applicability of the test both in clinics and epidemiology.