金华市大气PM2.5对儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响研究

目的 研究金华市大气PM_2.5对儿童呼吸系统门诊量的影响。方法 采用基于Poisson 分布的广义相加模型(generalized additive mode,GAM),控制气象因素、长期趋势和星期几效应等混杂因素,分析2015－2016年PM_2.5浓度和0~14岁儿童呼吸系统门诊量的关系及滞后效应。结果 2015－2016年金华市大气PM_2.5日均质量浓度为50.32 μg/m³,PM_2.5 浓度与5种气象因素日均值之间存在一定的相关性。Spearman 相关性分析发现大气PM_2.5日均浓度与儿童呼吸系统日门诊量之间存在正相关(r=0.298, P＜0.05)。广义相加模型结果分析,PM_2.5对儿童呼吸系统门诊量存在滞后效应,滞后效应第1 d最强,PM_2.5质量浓度每增加10 μg/m³,儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量增加0.048 8%(95%CI:0.030 1%~0.059 5%)。结论 金华市大气PM_2.5浓度升高可导致儿童呼吸系统患病风险增加,应采取措施保护易感人群。

Effect of ambient atmospheric PM2.5 on outpatient visitsof paediatric respiratory system diseases in Jinhua City

Objective To study the influence of ambient atmospheric PM_2.5 on outpatient volume of paediatric respiratory system diseases in Jinhua City. Methods Generalized additive model (GAM) based on Poisson distribution was used to analyze the association between PM_2.5 concentration during 2015-2016 and outpatient volume of respiratory system diseases in children aged 0-14 years as well as the related lag patterns after controlling meteorological variables, long term trend and the “day of the week” effect. Results The daily average mass concentration of atmospheric PM_2.5 in Jinhua City during 2015-2016 was 50.32 μg/m³. There was a certain correlation between the PM_2.5 concentration and the daily average values of five meteorological factors. Spearman correlation analysis showed that the daily average mass concentration of atmospheric PM_2.5 was positively correlated with the outpatient volume of paediatric respiratory system diseases (r=0.298, P<0.05). The GAM revealed that there was the hysteresis effect on influence of atmospheric PM_2.5 on daily outpatient volume of paediatric respiratory system diseases, which reached the strongest effect on the first day. An increase in atmospheric PM_2.5 mass concentration by 10 μg/m³ increased the outpatient volume of respiratory system diseases by 0.048,8%(95%CI:0.030 1%-0.059 5%). Conclusions The increment of PM_2.5 concentration can aggravate the risk of suffering from paediatric respiratory system diseases in Jinhua City; and hence, it is necessary to adopt corresponding measures to protect susceptible groups.