珠海市空气污染对人群死亡的影响

目的研究珠海市空气污染对居民死亡的短期影响。方法从中国空气质量在线监测分析平台获得2014-2017年每日空气污染物颗粒物质(particular mater,PM)、二氧化硫(sulfur dioxide,SO_2)、一氧化碳(carbon monoxide,CO)、二氧化氮(nitrogen dioxide,NO_2)、臭氧(ozone,O_3)等数据。结合人群死亡监测数据,采用泊松回归分析方法分析空气污染物对人群死亡的影响。结果 2014-2017年空气中PM_(2.5)、NO_2污染物对人群非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和心血管系统疾病死亡发现显著的关联。随着PM_(2.5)每升高10μg/m^3,人群非意外总死亡人数在滞后0～3 d均上升3.89%(95%CI:1.40～6.44%);呼吸系统疾病死亡人数在当天、滞后2～3 d分别上升9.84%(95%CI:2.24～18.0%)、12.6%(95%CI:4.81～21.1%)、12.7%(95%CI:4.91～21.1%);心血管系统疾病死亡人数在滞后2～3 d分别上升5.00%(95%CI:1.26～8.88%)、4.44%(95%CI:0.72～8.29%)。随着NO_2每升高10μg/m^3,人群非意外总死亡人数在滞后0～3 d均上升1.73%(95%CI:0.26～3.22%);心血管系统疾病死亡人数在滞后0～1 d分别上升2.98%(95%CI:0.75～5.26%)、2.68%(95%CI:0.45～4.96%)。结论 2014-2017年监测数据发现PM_(2.5)对人群非意外总死亡、心血管系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病死亡有显著影响。NO_2对人群非意外总死亡、心血管系统疾病死亡有显著影响。

Impact of air pollution on deaths of population in Zhuhai City

Objective To study the short-term effect of air pollution on residents’ deaths in Zhuhai City. Methods We obtained the data of daily air pollutants like particular mater (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃) from China Air Quality Monitoring and Analysis Online Platform during 2014-2017. Combined with population death monitoring data, Poisson regression analysis was used to analyze the effect of air pollutants on deaths of population in Zhuhai City. Results PM_2.5 and NO₂ in the air of Zhuhai City had significant effects on the total non-accidental deaths and the deaths of respiratory diseases and cardiovascular disease during 2014-2017. Poisson regression analysis indicated that for every 10 μg/m³ rise in PM_2.5 concentration, the total non-accidental deaths after a lag time of 0-3 days all increased by 3.89% (95%CI:1.40-6.44%), the respiratory disease deaths in the same day and after a lag time of 2-3 days respectively increased by 9.84% (95%CI:2.24-18.0%), 12.6% (95%CI:4.81-21.1%) and 12.7% (95%CI:4.91-21.1%), and the cardiovascular disease deaths after a lag time of 2-3 days respectively increased by 5.00% (95%CI:1.26-8.88%) and 4.44% (95%CI:0.72-8.29%). Poisson regression analysis indicated that for every 10 μg/m³ rise in NO₂ concentration, the total non-accidental deaths after a lag time of 0-3 days all increased by 1.73% (95%CI:0.26-3.22%), and the cardiovascular disease deaths after a lag time of 0-1 days respectively increased by 2.98% (95%CI:0.75-5.26%) and 2.68% (95%CI:0.45-4.96%). Conclusions The monitoring data during 2014-2017 revealed that PM_2.5 had significant effects on the total non-accidental deaths and the deaths of respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases, while NO₂ showed significant effects on the total non-accidental deaths and the cardiovascular disease deaths.