Prognostic factors in well-differentiated thyroid carcinoma

OBJECTIVES: To test the prognostic significance of standard clinicopathologic factors in patients with well-differentiated thyroid carcinoma (WDTC). STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective chart review of the thyroid cancer database at Mount Sinai Hospital (Toronto, Canada 1963-2000) was carried out. METHODS: All patients consecutively treated for WDTC with a follow-up period of at least 5 years were eligible for inclusion. Relevant patient, tumor, treatment, and outcome data were collected. The main outcome measures were recurrence rate, actuarial overall, and disease-specific survival at 20 years. RESULTS: Three hundred and thirty-three patients (F 275, M 58) with a median age of 39.7 (range 9-82.9) years were eligible for inclusion in this study (median follow-up 10.4 years, range 5-34.4 years, minimum 5 years). The recurrence rate was 15.6% (52 /333). The overall and disease-specific survival at 10 years was 97.5% and 98.5%, respectively. Likewise, the overall and disease-specific survival at 20 years was 88.4% and 93.3%, respectively. Clinicopathologic factors significant on multivariate regression for the development of disease recurrence included family history of WDTC, advanced stage, and total thyroidectomy (all P < .05). Similarly, advanced stage on presentation was associated with a worse disease-specific survival on multivariate regression (all P < .05). There was a trend for age 60 or greater to predict disease-specific survival (P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: WDTC is associated with a significant recurrence rate but good disease-specific survival. The most important prognostic factors are family history of WDTC, extent of surgical treatment (i.e., total thyroidectomy), and advanced initial stage of disease, with a trend for age 60 years and older.