应用可逆催化模型预测乙型病毒性肝炎发病水平

目的掌握连云港市乙型病毒性肝炎发病趋势。方法利用该市2010年社区人群乙型病毒性肝炎血清学调查资料,采用可逆催化模型进行预测。结果选用乙型病毒性肝炎核心抗体阳性率作为HBV感染指标,根据Muench H提供的诺模图进行参数估计,建立可逆催化模型,并进行模型拟合估算,经Kolmogorov-Smirnov方法检验,0～20岁间人群模型拟合效果差(D(0.177)﹥D(0.05)(0.063),P﹤0.05),20岁以上人群模型拟合效果较好(D(0.036)﹤D(0.05)(0.041),P﹥0.05)。预测结果在该市每年每1 000人将有27人出现乙肝核心抗体阳性,同时会有12人失掉乙肝核心抗体指征。结论采用可逆催化模型对该市乙型肝炎发病情况建立模型并进行预测,有利于为制定科学有效的防治措施提供依据。

Application of reversible catalytic model to estimate the prevalence of HBV in Lianyungang-2010

OBJECTIVE To understand the trend of HBV infection.METHODS Reversible catalytic model is used to estimate HBV infection with sero-epidemiological data of Lianyungang in 2010.RESULTS The positive of HBcAb was used to define infection,many parameters were estimated with the simple catalytic model figure provided by Muench H.The catalytic model was established and used to estimate the ratio of HBV infection.The model among group aged 0-19 year old was not so good(D(0.177)﹥D(0.05)(0.063),P﹤0.05)by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test,but the model among group aged ≥20 years old was better(D(0.036)﹤D(0.05)(0.041),P﹥0.05)by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.The estimated results showed 27 persons occurred the positive for HBcAb among each 1 000 residents annually,and 12 persons with the positive of HBcAb would lost the serologic markers of the HBcAb.CONCLUSION The reversible catalytic model can provide the scientific evidence for controlling the HBV infection.