|
|||||
|
|
| 指数平滑法在霜霉病发病趋势预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 华来庆,熊林平,孟虹,申广荣,胡亚萍,赵胜荣.指数平滑法在霜霉病发病趋势预测中的应用[J].数理医药学杂志,2006,19(2):119-121. |
| 作者姓名： | 华来庆 熊林平 孟虹 申广荣 胡亚萍 赵胜荣 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 第二军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生统计学教研室,上海,200433 2. 上海交通大学农业与生物学院 3. 上海市浦东新区农业技术推广中心 4. 上海市松江区蔬菜技术推广站 |
| 基金项目： | 上海市科委科技攻关项目 |
| 摘 要： | 目的:探索指数平滑法对霜霉病发病趋势的预测效果。方法:分别用简单指数平滑法、单参数双重指数平滑法、Ho lt-W in ters两参数双重指数平滑法对黄瓜霜霉病时间序列进行预测,比较预测效果。结果:对使用过农药的黄瓜霜霉病时间序列,三种指数平滑法预测效果均较好,以Ho lt-W in ters两参数双重指数平滑法的平均预测误差平方和略小一些。结论:可以利用指数平滑法对霜霉病一维时间序列进行预测。 |
| 关 键 词： | 指数平滑 时间序列 霜霉病 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4337（2006）02-0119-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年12月12 |
The Application of Exponential Smoothing Methods on the Forecast of Downy Mildew Disease Trends |
|
| Hua Laiqing, et al.The Application of Exponential Smoothing Methods on the Forecast of Downy Mildew Disease Trends[J].Journal of Mathematical Medicine,2006,19(2):119-121. | |
| Authors: | Hua Laiqing |
| Institution: | Department of Health Statistics, The Second Militang Medical University , Shanghai 200433 |
| Abstract: | Objective: To explore the forecast effect of the exponential smoothing method on the trend of downy mildew disease.Methods: Using simple exponential smoothing method,one-parameter double exponential smoothing method and Holt-Winters' two-parameter double exponential smoothing method respectively, a time series of cucumber downy disease was forecasted.Results: For the time series of downy mildew disease which have used pesticide,the forecast effects of 3 exponential smoothing methods were all good.Of these three methods,the average sums of the squared errors for the Holt-Winters' two-parameter double exponential smoothing were slightly smaller.Conclusion: The exponential smoothing method could be employed to forecast a time series of one dimension for cucumber downy disease. |
| Keywords: | exponential smoothing time series analysis mildew disease forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |