杭州地区小儿呼吸道合胞病毒感染流行特点与气象学因素

目的阐明杭州地区小儿呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)感染流行特点及影响RSV感染流行的气象学因素。方法连续3年对住院肺炎患儿中RSV的检出率进行动态观察,将月平均气温、相对湿度及雨天分别与月RSV检出率进行相关性分析。结果3年共检测患儿13642例,RSV阳性率为25.8%,其中≤1岁组检出率33.1%,1～3岁组19.7%,>3岁组5.1%,各年龄组间检出率差异有统计学意义(χ2=763.7,P=0.000)。RSV感染率总体上11月份开始明显增高,流行持续到次年的3-4月份,但每年的流行仍存在差别。雨天与RSV检出率之间r=0.32(P=0.066);相对湿度与RSV检出率之间r=-0.27(P=0.117);平均气温与RSV检出率之间r=-0.83(P=0.000),RSV检出率与气温之间的回归方程式:检出率(%)=52.933-1.914×气温(℃)。结论RSV是目前引起小儿肺炎的主要病毒。RSV在≤1岁组感染率最高,年龄越大感染率越低。RSV在杭州地区的流行见于冬春季,但存在变化,低气温是导致RSV感染流行的主要因素。

Study on the relations between epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus infection in children and climate factors in Hangzhou

OBJECTIVE: To study the epidemiolgy of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in children and its relations to climate factors in Hangzhou. METHODS: Monthly positive rate of RSV in pneumonia inpatients and climate factor including mean air temperature, mean relative humidity and rainy days per month were continuously observed for 3 years. Correlation analysis for RSV positive rate and these three climate factors were performed using partial correlation, and regression methods between the positive rate and significant factor was done. RESULTS: 13 642 cases were detected and 25.8% showed positive of RSV. The positive rate of RSV in children < or =1 years old, 1-3 years old, > 3 years old were 33.1%, 19.7% and 5.1% respectively with significant difference (chi2 = 763.7, P = 0.000). Rate of RSV infection was increased from December and kept in high level until May or April next year, but were varied at different years. Partial correlations between positive rate and rainy days, mean relative humidity, and mean air temperature per month were 0.32 (P= 0.066), -0.27 (P = 0.117) and -0.83 (P = 0.000) respectively. The regression equation of RSV positive rate and mean air temperature was: RSV positive rate (%) = 52.933 - 1.914 x mean air temperature (degrees C). CONCLUSION: RSV was one of the main factors causing of pneumonia in children while the highest infectious rate was in children < or =1 year old and infectious rate reduced along with the increase of age. Low air temperature was the main factor affecting the epidemiology of RSV. RSV was prevalent both in spring and winter in Hangzhou area.