| 基于乘积模型的门诊量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨婷,王玉贵,刘祖华. 基于乘积模型的门诊量预测[J]. 中国病案, 2009, 10(11): 40-41 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨婷 王玉贵 刘祖华 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北省十堰市太和医院,十堰市,442000 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的采用乘积模型预测医院门诊工作量。方法对某院2006年～2008年门诊量Y进行分解，建立乘积模型。Y=T×C×S×I，逐步分离长期趋势T、循环波动C、季节变动S、不规则变动I，利用求出的模型预测。结果2009年某院门诊工作量预测值为1162929人次。结论运用乘积模型进行预测，可为医院管理提供决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 乘积模型 门诊量 预测 |
The Prediction of Outpatient Amount Based on Product Model |
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| Yang Ting,Wang Yugui,Liu Zuhua. The Prediction of Outpatient Amount Based on Product Model[J]. Chinese Medical Record, 2009, 10(11): 40-41 |
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| Authors: | Yang Ting Wang Yugui Liu Zuhua |
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| Affiliation: | (Information Statistics Department, Taihe Hospital affiliated to Yunyang Medical College, Shiyan city, Hubei province, 442000 ) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To predict outpatient workload of our hospital in 2009. Methods Outpatient amount （ Y ） from 2006 to 2008 was decomposed to construct a product model. Y = T × C ×S×I . Long- term trend （ T ）, cycle fluctuation （ C ）- seasonal variation （ S ） and irregular variation （ I ） were separated gradually, and prediction was made by using the obtained model. Results The predicted value of outpatient workload of our hospital in 2000 was 1162929 person times. Conclusion Applying the product model to predict had a good prediction precision and high reliability. |
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| Keywords: | product model outpatient amount prediction |
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