Risk of progression to hypertension in a low-income Mexican population with prehypertension and normal blood pressure

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) levels below the prehypertensive category may be associated with the risk of developing hypertension. We estimated the incidence rates of hypertension in a low-income Mexican population according to several subcategories of baseline BP within normal and prehypertensive categories. METHODS: In total, 1572 nonhypertensive men (n = 632) and nonpregnant women (n = 940), aged 35 to 64 years at baseline, were followed for a median of 5.8 years. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) >or=140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) >or=90 mm Hg, or a self-reported physician's diagnosis with antihypertensive medications. RESULTS: During follow-up, 267 subjects developed hypertension, of whom 83 were men and 184 were women. The age-adjusted incidence rate was higher in women (37.1 per 1000 person-years) than in men (23.7 per 1000 person-years). There was a significant association between BP levels at baseline and incidence of hypertension, even within the normal category. For the upper levels of normal SBP (110 to 119 mm Hg), the hazards ratio (HR) was 2.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50 to 3.93) in women and 2.44 (95% CI, 1.05 to 5.69) in men, compared with SBP <110 mm Hg. For the upper levels of normal DBP (70 to 79 mm Hg), the HR was 2.33 (95% CI, 1.65 to 3.31) in women and 1.80 (95% CI, 0.92 to 3.52) in men, compared with DBP <70 mm Hg, after adjustment for recognized predictors. CONCLUSIONS: A high risk for the incidence of hypertension was associated with levels of BP, even within the normal category. This information could help define a population at high risk of progression to hypertension, to establish preventive measures.