上海市浦东新区大气PM2.5与气温交互作用对居民死亡的影响

【目的】探讨上海市浦东新区大气PM2.5与气温交互作用对居民非意外死亡的影响。【方法】收集2016年1月1日—2017年12月31日浦东新区居民逐日死亡资料、大气污染资料和气象资料,利用基于Poisson回归的广义相加模型,通过建立双变量响应曲面模型和温度分层模型,探讨气温对PM2.5死亡效应的修饰作用。【结果】2016—2017年期间浦东新区非意外总死亡共43345例。大气PM2.5日平均浓度39.1μg/m^3,日平均温度17.7℃,相对湿度75.0%。基础模型拟合结果显示,死亡前1日PM2.5浓度每升高10μg/m^3,居民非意外总死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡分别增加0.56%(95%CI:0.11%~1.01%)、0.49%(95%CI:-0.19%~1.18%)和0.22%(95%CI:-1.14%~1.60%),且男性和65岁以上人群中效应更显著。温度分层模型显示,中等温度时PM2.5每增加10μg/m 3,居民非意外总死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡分别增加0.59%(95%CI:0.04%~1.14%)、0.51%(95%CI:-0.32%~1.35%)和0.51%(95%CI:-0.32%~1.35%);较高温度时,非意外总死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡分别增加1.04%(95%CI:-0.60%~2.70%)和1.13%(95%CI:-1.40%~3.73%),效应约是较低和中等温度分层时的2~4倍;在较低温度时,呼吸系统疾病死亡增加1.05%(95%CI:-1.15%~3.30%),效应约是中等温度分层时的2倍。但气温与PM2.5的交互项无统计学意义。【结论】气温对PM2.5的死亡效应可能存在修饰作用,且在不同疾病别死亡中表现不同。

Interactive effects of fine particulate matter and temperature on residents mortality in Pudong,Shanghai

[Objective]To evaluate the interactive effects of fine particulate matter and temperature on non-accidental mortality of residents in Pudong,Shanghai.[Methods]Daily mortality,air pollutants and meteorological data from Jan 1 st.2016 to Dec 31 st.2017 were collected.Generalized additive Poisson regression models was used to estimate the effects of PM2.5 pollution on daily mortality,bivariate response surface models and temperature stratified models were applied to examine the interaction of temperature with PM2.5 on mortality.[Results]A total of 43345 non-accidental deaths were included,daily mean PM2.5 concentration was 39.1μg/m^3,daily mean temperature was 17.7℃.A 10μg/m^3 increase in the daily PM2.5 at lag 1 day was associated with a 0.56%(95%CI:0.11%-1.01%),0.49%(95%CI:-0.19%-1.18%)and 0.22%(95%CI:-1.14%-1.60%)increase in non-accidental,cardiovascular and respiratory mortality,respectively.Higher risks were identified for males and the older(≥65 years).The effect estimates per 10μg/m 3 increase in PM2.5 in medium temperature level were 0.59%(95%CI:0.04%-1.14%)for non-accidental,0.51%(95%CI:-0.32%-1.35%)for cardiovascular and 0.51%(95%CI:-0.32%-1.35%)for respiratory mortalities.The PM2.5 effects were approximately 2-4 times higher in higher temperature level for non-accidental and cardiovascular mortalities compared with other temperature levels;for respiratory mortality,the PM2.5 effects was approximately 2-fold higher in lower temperature levels than the medium,although the interactions between temperature and PM2.5 were statistically insignificant.[Conclusion]Temperature may modify the effects of PM2.5 on mortality in Pudong,Shanghai and the interactive pattern may be different across disease-specific mortalities.