ANALYSIS OF PROGNOSTIC FACTORS IN PATIENTS WITH GASTRIC VARICES AFTER ENDOSCOPIC TREATMENT

Background: The prognostic factors, including gastric variceal bleeding itself, in patients with gastric varices (GV) after endoscopic treatment remain unclear. The aim of this study was to analyze prognostic factors in patients with GV after endoscopic treatment as well as to evaluate safety and efficacy of our endoscopic treatment. Patients and Methods: This study enrolled 115 patients who underwent endoscopic treatment for GV between October 1988 and December 2003 using cyanoacrylate and 5% ethanolamine oleate. Successful hemostasis, recurrence rates, rebleeding rates, survival rates, complications and prognostic factors after the treatment were retrospectively reviewed. Results: Treatment sessions for GV were performed 3.4 ± 2.5 times. All cases, including 14 emergency cases, were treated successfully. The cumulative recurrence rates at 1, 3 and 5 years after the treatment were 7.0%, 15.6% and 20.0%, respectively, and the cumulative rebleeding rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were 3.5%, 8.7% and 14.8%, respectively. The overall survival rates were 78.3%, 63.7% and 51.5% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively. Grade B or C in Child–Pugh classification, emergency or elective cases, and association with hepatocellular carcinoma were identified as significant negative prognostic factors after endoscopic treatment by multivariate analysis. Although several complications were observed, there was no mortality. Conclusions: Grade B or C in Child–Pugh classification, emergency or elective situation, and association with hepatocellular carcinoma are negative prognostic factors after endoscopic treatment.