献血者血液梅毒检测结果及预测研究

目的 了解枣庄市无偿献血人群梅毒阳性情况,为临床提供安全的血液.方法 对2007-2009年梅毒阳性献血员进行流行病学分析,对季度梅毒阳性率建立数学模型并进行预测.结果 3年共检出梅毒阳性202例,其中男性95例,女性107例.以季度梅毒阳性率建立数学模型,Y=1.601＋0.31x,并对2010年每季度进行预测,预测阳性率分别为5.63‰、5.94‰、6.25‰、6.56‰.结论 严格检查,以防梅毒通过血液传播.无偿献血员梅毒流行趋于增长期.

Blood syphilis detection results in blood donor and prediction study

Objective To understand positive rate of syphilis among blood donors and based epidemic characters of syphilitic blood donors and to provide scientific evidences for disease control and prevention. Methods Making epidemiolngieal analysis about the positive blood donors with syphilis fi＇om year 2007 to 2009 and making mathematical model about positive rate of syphilis for every season to forecast. Resdts 202 syphilitics were detected among blood donors in three years in all,95men and 107 women of them.Y = 1.601 ＋ 0.31x mathematical model was made by season positive rate of syphilis to forecast eonditiorts in 2010,positive rate 5.63‰ ,5.94‰ ,6.25‰,6.56‰. Concision The blood donors of no occupation should be screened to avoid transmitting syphilis by blood infection, suggesting that the infectious rate of syphilis among blood donors might facilitate the spread of the disease in Zaozhuang city.