A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making |
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| Authors: | Athanasios Tsalatsanis Iztok Hozo Andrew Vickers Benjamin Djulbegovic |
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| Affiliation: | (1) Center for Evidence-based Medicine and Health Outcomes Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA;(2) Department of Mathematics, Indiana University Northwest, Gary, IN, USA;(3) Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, NY, NY, USA;(4) H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center& Research Institute, Tampa, FL, USA |
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| Abstract: | Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. |
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