自发性幕上脑出血预后的多元判别分析

目的 探讨影响自发性幕上脑出血预后的危险因素，建立脑出血后３０ｄ内生存或死亡的判别模型。方法 回顾性分析４８９例自发性幕上脑出血病例，对影响脑出血预后的危险因素进行单因素分析和多元判别分析。结果多元逐步判别分析发现，仅有意识障碍、出血量、伴发消化道出血等３个因素可作为判别因子，所建判别方程组内回代检验，判别符合率为８７．３％。结论 意识水平、出血量和是否伴发消化道出血 ３个因素是影响自发性幕上脑出血 ３０ ｄ预后的最重要的危险因素。

Multivariate discriminant analysis for assessing prognosis after spontaneous supratentorial hemorrhage

Objective To determine the most important risk factors for prognosis in patients with spontaneous supratentorial hemorrhage, andto develop a predictive model to evaluate 30 - day outcome. Method The medical records and CT scans of 489 inpatients with spontaneous supratentorial hemorrhage were retrospectively reviewed. Independent risk factors of 30-day outcome were determined using univariate and multivariate statistical analyses. Result Multivariate discriminate analysis showed that initial level of consiousness, hemorrhage size and concomitant gastro-intestinal bleeding were significant independent predictors of 30-day outcome. Using these three categories variables, the resulting moedl can predicted 30-day death or survival with an overall exactress of 87. 3%.. Conclusion Initial level of consciousness, in combination with hemorrhage size and concomitant gastro-intestinal bleeding, was a powerful and ease-to-use predictor of 30-day outcome in patients with spontaneous supratentorial hemorrhage.