腹泻症状监测与法定报告肠道传染病监测的错位相关分析

目的分析2007-2009年成都市腹泻症状监测数据和同期法定报告传染病中的肠道传染病监测数据的时间变化及相互关系,找出两者之间的变化规律,为肠道传染病预警提供更有效的方法。方法采用错位相关分析两数据源的时间错位相关关系,定量研究两数据源的时间先导性。结果法定报告肠道传染病发病率与腹泻症状患者报告率在3年监测同一时刻均具有相关关系,经过错位相关分析得到,2007年、2008年腹泻症状患者报告率和前移1周的肠道传染病发病率的相关系数最大,滞后时间在1周左右。对于其他感染性腹泻,腹泻症状监测报告率分别与2007年、2008年前移1周的其他感染性腹泻发病率的相关性最高,而对于菌痢,3年均表现为监测本周的两数据源时间分布最为相近。结论腹泻症状监测可以提前1周左右提示法定报告肠道传染病的发生,尤其对其他感染性腹泻和菌痢的预警作用比较明显,对该监测数据的预警分析能在一定程度上起到早期发现肠道传染病流行趋势的作用。

Cross Correlation Analysis on Diarrhea Symptom Surveillance and Notifiable Intestinal Infectious Disease Surveillance

Objective To analyze the time variant and correlation between the surveillance data of diarrhea symptoms and the surveillance data of notifiable intestinal infectious diseases during 2007- 2009 in Chengdu city,and to provide a more effective method for the early warning of intestinal infectious diseases. Methods Cross correlation analysis was employed to analyze the time cross correlation between the above two data sources,and then their time pilot were quantitatively studied. Results There was a correlation between the incidence of notifable intestinal infectious diseases and reported rate of diarrhea patients at the same time in each year of 2007-2009. According to cross correlation analysis findings,in 2007 and 2008,the coefficient correlation between the report rate of diarrhea patients and the one- week earlier incidence of notifable intestinal infectious diseases was the maximum,with a delay of one week or so. Other notifable infectious diarrhea showed the highest correlation between the report rate of diarrhea symptom surveillance and their one- week earlier notifable incidence in 2007 or 2008. However,the most similarity in time distribution at the same week of surveillance in each year was found in the two data resources of dysentery.Conclusion Diarrhea symptom surveillance can indicate the occurrence of notifable intestinal infectious diseases about one week in advance,which is especially significant for the early warning of diarrhea and other notifableinfectious diarrhea. Therefore,the early warning analysis of this data may play a role in early revealing the epidemic trend of intestinal infectious diseases.