疾病预防控制档案的长期趋势及影响因素分析

目的通过对绵阳疾控中心有史以来的全部归档文件从数量上的动态变动趋势及其影响因素的分析,预测今后一段时期疾控档案数量可能达到的规模,为疾控档案管理提供措施。方法应用动态数列理论对档案资料作动态变动趋势描述并作出预测;查阅相关历史文献、大众媒体公开资料探讨影响疾控档案动态走势因素。结果疾控档案在数量上随着时间的延续整体呈波浪上升态势,其定基发展速度为18.99倍,平均发展速度为1.25倍,平均增长速度是0.25倍,预计未来一段时间的2012-2014年归档文件数量平均每年将达到765.66件、2015-2017年将达956.96件;影响疾控档案归档文件数量动态变动趋势的因素有历史原因和档案本身原因。结论疾控档案资料的动态走势与疾控工作的工作量、档案工作的工作量呈正比,工作量越大存档文件越多;适时清理过期档案文件、档案资料在整理时准确归类是缓解储存空间压力的必要手段。

Long-term Trends and Influencing Factors of Disease Prevention and Control Files

Objective To analyze the dynamic trends and influencing factors of control and prevention files throughout the history of Mianyang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,based on which to predict the scale of the file in future and to provide references for disease control file management. Methods Dynamic series theory was performed for describing dynamic trends of the file and for making predictions.Meanwhile,relevant historical documents and mass media public information were also checked for investigating influencing factors. Results The disease control files had been accumulating with a wave- shape. The development speed with fixed basis was 18. 99 times,the average develop rate was 1. 25 times and the average growth rate was 0. 25 times. Prediction was made that in2012- 2014 the number of arched files would reach up to 765. 66,and in 2015- 2017 it would reach up to956. 96. The influencing factors of the dynamic trend of archived files included history reasons and causal factorsin files itself. Conclusion The dynamic trend of the disease control file data is proportional to the workload of the disease control work and the archival work. To timely cleanup the expired file and to accurately classify the information are necessary means to ease the storage pressure.