天津港国际航行船舶携带医学媒介生物风险分析及预测模型的建立

〔目的〕通过对天津港2006年全年和2007年上半年所有入境船舶资料进行分析,找出导致船舶携带医学媒介生物的危险因素,并建立数学模型,指导在入境船舶上对医学媒介生物的检查,有效防止媒介生物传入我国。〔方法〕利用多种单因素和多因素分析方法对资料进行分析,应用风险分析的理论建立数学模型。〔结果〕研究发现起航港是否疫区、船舶国籍、船舶装载货物类型、航舶到港时间、船舶类型、船舶吨位、船舶船龄7个危险因素,并据此建立了数学模型。〔结论〕本研究建立的国际航行船舶医学媒介生物风险预测模型具有较强的预测能力,分析结果准确可靠,能较好地指导入境船舶媒介生物检疫查验工作。

The Report of Hazard Analyzing and Establishing Predicting Model of the Vectors on Entry-exit Vehicles at Tianjin Port

Objective Based on the data analysis in 2006 and the first half of 2007, this article aims to find out the risk factors which influence the exiting vectors on the entry-exit vehicles, and to set up predicting model to detect the relationship of the risk factors and the outcomes. Method Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were conducted and the mathematical model was established based on the hazard-analysis theory. Result From statistics analysis, the 7 risk factors were indentified such as whether the embarking port was in epidemic region, crew＇s nationality, goods carried, the month of disembarking, type of water craft, tonnage, and years of slapping services. Conclusion Using the relative model, we can quantify the vector-associated hazard and the corresponding risk factors. Therefore, these information from the model can be used to guide our frontier quarantine work.