南宁市淋病1996～2005年发病率灰色模型及预测研究

目的了解南宁市1996～2005年淋病流行趋势，通过建立发病率（1／10万）灰色系统GM（1，1）模型和预测，为制定和开展更为有效的淋病预防控制措施提供科学依据。方法对南宁市10年来的淋病疫情资料进行回顾性分析，建立发病率（1／10万）灰色系统GM（1，1）模型并进行预测。结果南宁市淋病发病率多年来呈上升趋势，2003年开始呈下降趋势。预测2008、2010和2012年南宁市淋病发病率呈下降趋势结论应持续开展淋病的综合防治措施，加强淋病疫情的监测工作，以有效地控制淋病的传播与蔓延。

Gonorrhea's incidence gray system model and prediction between 1996 and 2005

Objective To understand the prevalent trend of gonorrhea in Nanning City from 1996 to 2005 and establish gonorrhea gray system model GM （ 1, 1 ） for forcasting the incidence of gonorrhea and offer scientific basis for formulating effective control measures and forcasting its prevalence, Methods The data concerning prevalence of gonorrhea in Nanning were retrospectively analyzed for establishment of the incidence of gonorrhea （ 1/100 000） gray model （GM1,1）. Results The incidence of gonorrhea showed an increasing trend before 2004 and the incidence showed a decreasing trend since 2003. It was foreasted that the incidence of gonorrhea in the years of 2008, 2010 and 2012 would show a descending trend, Conclusion The work of monitoring and control of gonorrhea in this city be cantinously carried out to roll back the spreading of the disease.