Rogerson空间模式监测方法在传染病实时监中的应用

探讨Rogerson空间模式监测方法在中国传染病实时监测中的应用。文中介绍该方法的原理，以中国疾病预防控制中心监测流行性脑脊髓膜炎为例，探索关键参数如K、H、n0和τ的设定、模拟监测过程及解释结果等。结果表明Rogerson空间模式监测方法能够连续不断地监测传染病疫情变化，及时发出预警信息，同时确定传染病病例发生的时间和地点。Rogerson空间模式监测方法能够做到实时和动态监测，克服多重检验问题，为传染病早期防控提供可靠信息，因此在传染病聚集性探测和实时分析中具有重要应用价值。

Study on the application of Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method in real-time surveillance for infectious diseases

Application of Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method was discussed in real-time surveillance and early monitoring for infectious diseases. Theory of Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method was introduced in detail. Data from the program on 'Monitoring epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis with Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method' by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention provided evidence as how to choose crucial parameters such as K, H, n0 and tau, how to simulate surveillance process and how to interpret results. Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method seemed to be able to continuously monitor the changes of infectious diseases. New cases could be added to this model at any moment and this model could provide early warning information in time when the excess of cases occurred. Simultaneously it could provide the time and site of the extra cases. Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method could implement dynamic and real-time surveillance for infectious diseases. Simultaneously it could avoid the problem of multiple tests that causing large type I error. It greatly helped in providing reliable information for controlling infectious diseases in early epidemic period. Hence,it had important value of application in early warning on infectious diseases.