| 差分自回归移动平均模型在伤害预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘娟,贾存显,王艳丽,刘虹波,纪媛媛,葛琳.差分自回归移动平均模型在伤害预测中的应用[J].预防医学文献信息,2013(12):914-916. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘娟 贾存显 王艳丽 刘虹波 纪媛媛 葛琳 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]山东大学公共卫生学院,山东济南250012 [2]青岛市城阳区疾病预防控制中心,山东青岛266109 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨差分自回归移动平均（ARIMA）时间序列模型在伤害预测中的应用，建立伤害发生率预测模型。方法利用伤害监测系统，收集城阳区2006~2012年伤害月病例数，建立ARIMA模型。结果ARIMA（1，0，0）（0，1，1）12模型可以较好拟合伤害月发病率时间序列。利用ARIMA模型预测2013年伤害发生率为253．93／万。结果ARIMA模型具有适用性，可以用于伤害短期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 伤害 差分自回归移动平均模型 预测 |
Application of ARIMA Model on Prediction of Injury Incidence |
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| Institution: | LIU Juan, JIA Cun-xian, WANG Yan-li, et al. ( School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the applications of time series ARIMA model,so as to establish the predictive mod- el of injury incidence rate. Methods ARIMA model was established based on the monthly injury incidences during 2006-2012 in Chengyang district, which were collected from the injury surveillance system. The constructed model was used to predict the injury incidence rate in 2013. Results ARIMA（1,0,0）（0,1,1）12 model can appropriately fit the monthly injury incidence rate,and the predicted injury incidence rate in 2013 was 253.93/104. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to fit the trend of injury incidence in time series and predict the injury incidence of short-term time se- ries. |
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| Keywords: | Injury ARIMA model Prediction |
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