血浆N末端脑钠肽前体联合全球急性冠状动脉事件注册评分建立非ST段抬高型急性冠状动脉综合征临床风险预测模型的研究

目的 探讨N末端脑钠肽前体（NT-proBNP）联合全球急性冠状动脉事件注册（GRACE）评分对非ST段抬高型急性冠状动脉综合征（NSTE-ACS）临床风险的预测价值,建立混合风险模型.方法入选首都医科医科大学附属北京安贞医院640例NSTE-ACS患者,采用随机数字卡分为建立模型组（409例）和预测模型组（231例）.建立模型组平均随访（774±217）d,预测模型组随访时间（706±231）d.终点事件为主要不良心脏事件（MACE）,包括心原性死亡、心肌梗死、心力衰竭再入院.分析NSTE-ACS患者血浆NT-proBNP、GRACE评分关系,将二者联合建立混合风险模型,并预测混合风险模型是否增加预测MACE的准确性.结果 建立模型组低危组105例,中危组209例,高危组95例,其中26例（6.6%）发生了MACE;lgNT-proBNP与GRACE评分呈正相关（r=0.507,P〈0.01）; GRACE评分、lgNT-proBNP的受试工作者特征（ROC）曲线下面积分别为0.807和0.798.计算得出的混合风险模型= GRACE＋20＆#215;lgNT-proBNP＋15,混合风险模型ROC曲线下面积0.843,较GRACE评分的ROC曲线下面积增高（P〈0.05）.对混合风险模型重新危险分层,低危〈135分,中危135~170分,高危〉170分.重新分层后6.1%的患者进行了重新分组,其中7例高危组患者降至中危组,8例高危组患者降至低危组,10例低危组患者升入高危组;发生MACE的患者8.0%进行了重新分组,其中2例从中危组升入高危组.预测模型组15例（6.5%）发生了MACE;预测模型组混合风险模型ROC曲线下面积0.762,较GRACE评分ROC曲线下面积0.748增加,P〈0.05.结论 NT-proBNP浓度和GRACE评分为MACE事件的独立危险因素.NT-proBNP浓度联合GRACE评分所得到的混合风险模型可增加预测MACE事件的准确性.

Addition of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk stratification to predict outcome in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

Objective To build a composite score based on the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events （GRACE） score and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） concentrations to predict outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome （NSTE-ACS）. Methods Patients with NSTE-ACS in Beijing Anzhen Hospital affiliated to capital medical university, a composite score including the GRACE score and NT-proBNP concentrations was first randomly developed in a retrospective cohort of 409 patients with NSTE-ACS and then validated in a prediction model of other 231 patients. The mean follow- up time in a retrospective cohort were （774±217） days, and in a prediction model were （706±231）days. The primary end point was the composite of MACE, defined as cardiogenic deaths, myocardial infarction, readmission for heart failure. Results The patients were reclassified by the composite score, 105 patients were in low risk group, 209 patients were in medium risk group, and 95 patients were in high risk group. End points were reached in 26 patients （6.6%）. The lgNT-proBNP in patients with NSTE-ACS had positive correlation with their GRACE risk score （r=0.507, P〈0.01）; The under-ROC curve area of GRACE risk score and lgNT-proBNP were 0.807 and 0.798 respectively. The composite score could be obtained as follows： GRACE＋20＆#215;lgNT-proBNP＋15. The patients would be reclassified by the composite score, 〈135 was low risk group, 135-170 was medium risk group, and 〉170 was high risk group. 10 patients would be reclassified at high risk using the composite score despite being classified at low risk using the GRACE score alone. Alternatively, 7 patients would be reclassified at medium risk, while being classified high risk with the GRACE score alone. 8 patients would be reclassified at low risk using the composite score despite being classified at high risk using the GRACE score alone. Finally, 2 patients while being classified medium risk of reached the end points, that was would be reclassified at high risk. 6.5% of the population in prediction model reached the end points. The use of the composite score increased the accuracy of the GRACE score, with an increase in the under-ROC curve area from 0.748 to 0.762. Conclusion Both NT-proBNP concentration and GRACE score are independently associated with outcome. The comprehensive risk score, which includes NT-proBNP concentration and the GRACE risk score, might improve the accuracy of NSTE-ACS risk stratification in clinical practice.