某低污染区大气污染物对脑血管疾病死亡的影响

目的探讨低污染地区主要大气污染物对居民脑血管病死亡的影响。方法收集2002—2007年某地区脑血管病日死亡人数和主要大气污染物日平均浓度,经时间序列法平稳化序列后,再运用多元线性回归法进行相关性和确定性分析。结果①该地区大气中二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)、一氧化碳(CO)以及空气动力学直径10μm以下的可吸入颗粒物(PM10)日平均浓度与居民脑血管疾病死亡人数之间存在显著相关(P0.05),其中大气中SO2、NO2、CO浓度每升高10μg/m3,脑血管疾病死亡的相对危险度(OR)分别增加5.65%(95%CI,4.93%～6.37%)、1.03%(95%CI,0.24%～1.82%)和0.12%(95%CI,0.09%～0.14%),而PM10则呈显著负相关(P=0.00)。②居民日脑血管疾病死亡人数与大气污染物浓度存在线性回归(P0.05),回归方程为:^y=16.917+72.092(SO2)+26.190(NO2)-15.932(PM10)+2.062(CO)。③从标化后的偏回归系数可以得出,自变量SO2浓度对应变量脑血管疾病日死亡的影响最大。结论该地区居民脑血管病死亡与大气中SO2、NO2和呈正相关,存在线性回归,其中尤以SO2的影响最大,PM10则呈负相关;控制该地区SO2的污染水平是降低居民脑血管疾病死亡率的关键。

Effect of Atmospheric Pollutants on Mortality of Cerebrovascular Disease in A Lower polluted Area

[Objective]To investigate the effect of main atmospheric pollutants on the mortality of cerebrovascular disease in the lower polluted area.[Methods]The number of cerebrovascular disease deaths per day and daily average concentrations of major air pollutants in a area during 2002—2007 were collected.After smoothing the data sequence by time series method,the relevance and uncertainty analysis was performed by multiple linear regression.[Results]①The main atmospheric pollutants included sulfur dioxide （SO2）,nitrogen dioxide （NO2）,carbon monoxide （CO） and particular matter （aerodynamic diameter less than 10μm,PM10 ）.There was significant relation between the daily mortality of cerebrovascular disease and the daily mean of concentration of air pollutants in this area（P0.05）.The estimated relative risk （OR） of the mortality of cerebrovascular disease for each 10 μg/m3 increase of SO2,NO2 and CO was 5.65%（95%CI,4.93%～6.37%）,1.03%（95%CI,0.24%～1.82%） and 0.12%（95%CI,0.09%～0.14%,respectively;while there was negative relation for PM10（P=0.00）.②There were linear regression between the mortality and the concentration of pollutants （P0.05）.The regression equation was =16.917＋72.092（SO2）＋26.190（NO2）-15.932（PM2）＋2.062（CO）.[Conclusion]In this area,there is significantly positive correlation and linear regression between the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and the concentration of air SO2,NO2,especially for SO2,while for PM10 the relation is negative.The key to decrease of the mortality of cerebrovascular disease is to control the polluted level of SO2.