莒南县1990～2001年农村老年人口死因分析及预测

目的 了解影响老年人口死亡的主要原因，探讨死亡规律，为老年人保健、老年病防治及老年基础医学研究提供科学依据。方法 运用老龄化指标及GM(1，1)灰色预测模型对我县疾病监测点老年人死亡数据进行分析。结果 2001年我县老年人口比例达到12．35％。影响我县老年人口死亡的主要原因是心脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病及肿瘤，分别占38．96％，29．54％，17．35％，经预测呈逐年增长趋势。结论 我县已经进入老龄化社会，应进一步加强老年人口的医疗保健工作，保障群众健康。

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF THE CAUSES OF DEATH OF RURAL SENILE POPULATION IN JU''''NAN COUNTY BETWEEN 1990 AND 2001

Objective To explore the main causes and the rules of death of rural senile population so as to provide scientific basis for senile medical health care, disease prevention and senile basic medical research. Methods The data of death,collected by Ju'nan County disease monitoring station, were analyzed according to the aging indexes and the GM( 1,1) Grey Dynamic Model. Results Senile people amounted to 12. 35% of the total population of Ju'nan County in 2001.The main causes of senile deaths were cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,repiratory diseases and tumors,accounting for 38.9% ,29.54% and 17.35% respectively. It is predicted that the percentages of them are on rise year by year. Conclusion Ju'nan county has now entered an aging society. The work of medical health care should be further strengthened.