应用灰色模型预测围产儿出生缺陷发病趋势

目的探讨灰色模型预测围产儿出生缺陷发病率的价值，了解我省围产儿出生缺陷的发病情况和动态变化趋势，为制定防治措施提供依据。方法建立灰色模型对1995-2003年山东省围产儿出生缺陷发病率进行模型拟合和趋势预测，用决定系数R^2检验拟合效果，回代误差和后验差检验预测精度。结果山东省围产儿出生缺陷发病率灰色残差GM（1，1）模型：γ0（t）=-3957.5＋4008.8e^0.018623（t-1）十δ（t-1-i）6.61e^0.0000893（t-1）-6.61]。决定系数R^2=0.93，模型拟和较好，预测值与实测值平均相对误差率为7．2％，后验差检验得到模型后验差比值为0.57，小误差概率0.78，精度检验尚可接受。结论山东省围产儿出生缺陷发病率灰色残差GM（1，1）模型拟合较为理想。预测今后几年我省围产儿出生缺陷发病率呈上升趋势。

Application of grey theory model on forecasting incidence rate of perinatal birth defect

Objective To study the predictive value of the grey systemic forecast model in forecasting the incidence rate of perinatals＇ birth defect. To monitor and forecast the incidence rate of perinatals＇ birth defect effectively, and to provide basal information for preventing pefinatals＇ birth defect and treating cases of perinatals＇ birth defect. Methods Based on the incidence rate of perinatals＇ birth defect from 1995 to 2003, the grey systemic forecast model was estabfished to analysis the incidence rate of perinatals＇ birth defect. Results The grey systemic forecast model： γ0（t）=-3957.5＋4008.8e^0.018623（t-1）十δ（t-1-i）6.61e^0.0000893（t-1）-6.61]. R^2=0.93. C = 0.57 ;P = 0.78. The model is fit and the precision of the established model could be received. Conclusion We noticed the established model was satisfied. Our results show the trend of the incidence rate of perinatals＇ birth defect is ascending in the future years.