| 应用曲线拟合对乙脑发病率进行分析预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王培承,宋春燕,胡式良,杨淑香,尹爱田,李向云,李建.应用曲线拟合对乙脑发病率进行分析预测[J].中国医院统计,2004,11(2):106-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王培承 宋春燕 胡式良 杨淑香 尹爱田 李向云 李建 |
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| 作者单位： | 261042,潍坊医学院公共卫生与管理学院,潍坊市 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的对乙脑进行有效监控预测,为乙脑疾病的预防与治疗提供依据.方法采用倒数函数、幂函数、对数函数、S型函数四个曲线函数拟合乙脑发病率,经比较选择倒数函数为较优拟合模型.结果建立预测乙脑发病率模型.结论所建立的模型拟合效果好,预测精度高,外推预测值可信.
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| 关 键 词： | 曲线拟合 预测 乙脑 发病率 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-5253(2004)02-0106-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月25日 |
Application of Curve Fitting on Forecasting the Incidence Rate of Type - B Encephalitis |
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| Wang Peicheng,Song Chunyan,Hu Shiliang,et al..Application of Curve Fitting on Forecasting the Incidence Rate of Type - B Encephalitis[J].Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics,2004,11(2):106-107. |
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| Authors: | Wang Peicheng Song Chunyan Hu Shiliang |
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| Institution: | Wang Peicheng,Song Chunyan,Hu Shiliang,et al.,Department of Health Service Management,Weifang Medical college,Weifang,261042 |
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| Abstract: | Objective To Monitor and forecast the incidence rate of Type-B encephalitis effectively and provide basic information for preventing Type-B encephalitis and treating cases of Type-B encephalitis.Methods 4 types of curve-model such as Inverse function model, Power function model, Logarithmic function model and S-function model were used to fit the trend of Type-B encephalitis incidence rate. By further comparing, it can be found that the Imverse model is most suitable.Results A model for forecasting the incidence rate of Type-B encephalitis was established.Conclusion The precision of the established model was well, the fitting effect was perfect and extrapolation predictive value was reliable. |
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| Keywords: | Curve fitting Forecasting Type-B encephalitis Incidence rate |
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