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冬季咳嗽与秋季气象因子的相关性探讨
引用本文:张天星,郝宇,贺娟. 冬季咳嗽与秋季气象因子的相关性探讨[J]. 北京中医药大学学报, 2016, 0(2): 119-121. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2157.2016.02.006
作者姓名:张天星  郝宇  贺娟
作者单位:北京中医药大学基础医学院 北京100029;北京中医药大学基础医学院 北京100029;北京中医药大学基础医学院 北京100029
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(81273874)
摘    要:目的探讨冬季咳嗽与秋季气象因子之间的相关性,建立冬季咳嗽(肺部感染)发病人数的回归预测模型。方法由北京中医药大学东直门医院提供从1999年2月4日至2011年2月3日共12年的所有住院病例资料,筛选出冬季肺部感染患者共计1 093例;由北京市观象台提供同期12年的气象因素,包括每日平均温度、平均降雨量、平均相对湿度、平均水汽压、平均风速。对冬季肺部感染住院人数与秋冬两季各气象因子之间进行Spearman相关性分析。结果冬季肺部感染患者人数与秋季平均温度(P0.05)、秋季平均水汽压(P0.01)的相关性具有统计学意义,与温度和水汽压正相关,与风速负相关;在建立多元逐步回归方程中,最优模型选入的自变量为秋季平均水汽压和秋季平均风速,方程为:Y=-424.971+45.117X1-76.290X2(X1是秋季平均水汽压,X2是秋季平均风速)。结论《黄帝内经》"秋伤于湿,冬生咳嗽"符合临床实际。

关 键 词:冬季咳嗽  肺部感染  疾病与气象

Correlation between meteorological factors in autumn and cough in winter
ZHANG Tianxing,HAO Yu,HE Juan. Correlation between meteorological factors in autumn and cough in winter[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 2016, 0(2): 119-121. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2157.2016.02.006
Authors:ZHANG Tianxing  HAO Yu  HE Juan
Abstract:Objective To analyze the relationship between meteorological factors in autumn and inci-dence of cough ( pulmonary infection) in winter, and establish regression forecast equations to estimate pulmonary infection incidence in Beijing. Methods 1 093 case records of pulmonary infection from 1999 to 2011 were collected from Beijing Dongzhimen Hospital and data of meteorological factors ( inclu-ding daily average temperature, wind speed, precipitation, relative humidity, and vapor pressure) during the same period were also collected from Beijing Meteorological Observatory. The Spearman correlation and stepwise multiple regression were adopted to analyze the data. Results The incidence of pulmonary infection was related to average temperature and average vapor pressure in autumn. Average vapor pres-sure and average wind speed in autumn were elected into the equation. The equation was Y= -424. 971+45. 117X1 -76. 290X2(X1 stands for average vapor pressure while X2 stands for average wind speed). Conclusion The incidence of pulmonary infection in winter in Beijing area was related to average vapor pressure and average wind speed in autumn, which verifies the theory in Huangdi Neijing ( Huangdi’ s Internal Classic) that damp pathogens ( shi xie) in autumn can lead to occurrence of cough in winter.
Keywords:cough in winter  pulmonary infection  disease and meteorology
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