| Temperature and Daily Mortality in Shanghai： A Time-series Study |
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| 引用本文： | Kan HD,Jia J,Chen BH. Temperature and Daily Mortality in Shanghai： A Time-series Study[J]. Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES, 2003, 16(2): 133-139 |
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| 作者姓名： | Kan HD Jia J Chen BH |
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| 作者单位： | [1]DepartmentofEnvironmentalHealth,SchoolofPublicHealth,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200032,China [2]ZhabeiDistrictCenterofDiseaseControlandPrevention,Shanghai200072,China |
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| 摘 要： | Objective To investigate the association between temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai from June 1, 2000 to December 31,2001. Methods Time-series approach was used to estimate the effect of temperature on daily total and cause-specific mortality. We fitted generalized additive Poisson regression using non-parametric smooth functions to control for long-term time trend, season and other variables. We also controlled for day of the week. Results A gently sloping V-like relationship between total mortality and temperature was found, with an optimum temperature (e.g.temperature with lowest mortality risk) value of 26.7℃ in Shanghai. For temperatures above the optimum value, total mortality increased by 0.73% for each degree Celsius increase; while for temperature below the optimum value, total mortality decreased by 1.21% for each degree Celsius increase. Conclusions Our findings indicate that temperature has an effect on daily mortality in Shanghai, and the time-series approach is a useful tool for studying the temperature-mortality association.
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| 关 键 词： | 温度 日死亡率 上海 时间序列分析 相关性 |
Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai: a time-series study |
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| Kan Hai-Dong,Jia Jian,Chen Bing-Heng. Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai: a time-series study[J]. Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES, 2003, 16(2): 133-139 |
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| Authors: | Kan Hai-Dong Jia Jian Chen Bing-Heng |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. |
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| Abstract: | OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai from June 1, 2000 to December 31, 2001. METHODS: Time-series approach was used to estimate the effect of temperature on daily total and cause-specific mortality. We fitted generalized additive Poisson regression using non-parametric smooth functions to control for long-term time trend, season and other variables. We also controlled for day of the week. RESULTS: A gently sloping V-like relationship between total mortality and temperature was found, with an optimum temperature (e.g. temperature with lowest mortality risk) value of 26.7 degrees C in Shanghai. For temperatures above the optimum value, total mortality increased by 0.73% for each degree Celsius increase; while for temperature below the optimum value, total mortality decreased by 1.21% for each degree Celsius increase. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that temperature has an effect on daily mortality in Shanghai, and the time-series approach is a useful tool for studying the temperature-mortality association. |
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| Keywords: | Temperature Mortality Time-series |
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