What is a safe waiting time for coronary artery bypass surgery? |
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Authors: | Kee F; McDonald P; Kirwan JR; Patterson CC; Love AH |
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Institution: | Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Queen's University of Belfast, UK. |
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Abstract: | To determine the factors that influenced doctors' prioritization and
decisions on safe waiting time for coronary artery bypass surgery, 50
'paper patients', based on a random sample of cases who actually had
surgery, were assessed by 33 clinicians. We used linear regression models
to reflect the impact of clinical and non-clinical 'cues' on safe waiting
time and priority decisions. The benefits of surgery tended to be
over-estimated. For example, the average perceived gain in life expectancy
for patients with left main-stem disease was 6.74 years. However, models
incorporating only the perceptions of benefit as independent variables
(i.e. the anticipated symptom reduction, MI risk reduction and life
expectancy extension), had only modest explanatory power (mean R2 was 0.55
for safe waiting time, and 0.56 for priority decisions). Models which
incorporated perceptions of benefit and the cases' clinical and
non-clinical characteristics had generally much higher explanatory power
(mean R2, 0.83 and 0.86, respectively). Lifestyle and demographic variables
had much less impact on the doctors' judgements than the major clinical
cues of angina severity and left main-stem stenosis. Demographic and
lifestyle cues had different impacts on safe waiting time and priority for
about 25% of doctors.
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