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| 季节性时间序列分析在医院感染中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 罗阳,丁国英,府伟灵,郭波涛,张雪,黄君富. 季节性时间序列分析在医院感染中的应用[J]. 中华医院感染学杂志, 2005, 15(4): 390-392 |
| 作者姓名： | 罗阳 丁国英 府伟灵 郭波涛 张雪 黄君富 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 第三军医大学西南医院,重庆,400038 2. 胶南市经济技术开发区医院,山东,胶南,266400 3. 第三军医大学统计教研室,重庆,400038 |
| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)，国家自然科学基金，重庆市应用基础研究基金 |
| 摘 要： | 目的为了研究医院感染人数与不同季节的关系.方法利用季节性时间序列的线性模型对1996～2002年的数据建模,并比较各个模型对2003年的数据预测能力,从而总结出最佳模型.结果最后得到4个模型,各模型的P值均＜0.0001,说明新建立的模型是可靠的;预测的结果表明最后一个模型的效果最好.结论季节性时间序列的线性模型能较好的模拟医院感染人数同季节的关系,并有较强的预测能力,从而为医院感染人数的预测提供了有效的工具. |
| 关 键 词： | 医院感染人数 时间序列分析 模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-4529(2005)04-0390-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-10-16 |
Seasonal Time Sequence Analysis Applying for Nosocomial Infection |
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| LUO Yang,Ding Guo-ying,FU Wei-ling,GUO Bo-tao,ZHANG Xue,Huang Jun-fu. Seasonal Time Sequence Analysis Applying for Nosocomial Infection[J]. Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology, 2005, 15(4): 390-392 | |
| Authors: | LUO Yang Ding Guo-ying FU Wei-ling GUO Bo-tao ZHANG Xue Huang Jun-fu |
| Abstract: | OBJECTIVE To investigate the relationship between bacterial infection number in hospitals and different seasons. METHODS A seasonal time sequence linear model was applied to establish a model based on the data obtained from the years 1996 to 2002, then compare the ability of every model to predict data on 2003 and pick out the best model. RESULTS We got four models at last with the P value <0.0001 each, which showed the new constructed model was confidential. From predicted results, the last model was the best one. CONCLUSIONS Seasonal time sequence analysis can well simulate the relation of infection numbers and seasons. Its strong predictable ability can afford an effective tool to forecast the numbers of nosocomial infection. |
| Keywords: | Nosocomial infection number Seasonal time sequence analysis Model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |