南水北调东线气候变化对血吸虫病传播潜在影响的研究

目的阐明南水北调东线气候变化对血吸虫病传播的潜在影响。方法采集南水北调东线有关气象台站地面气候资料和血吸虫病流行病学资料，采用相关和回归分析方法分析不同纬度气温、降水、日照特征和气温、降水量变化趋势，分析气温等要素对降水量的影响，评估东线气候变化对血吸虫病流行的影响。结果南水北调东线不同纬度气象台站累年平均气温（1）、累年平均最高气温（2）、累年平均最低气温（3）、累年极端最低气温（4）、累年平均相对湿度（5）、累年降水量（6）与纬度呈显著负相关，均随着纬度的升高而呈下降趋势（r1=-0．849，P=0．000；r2=-0．776，P=0．003；r3=-0．806，P=0．002；r4=-0．798，P=0．002；r5=-0．883，P=0．000；r6=-0．961，P=0．000），而累年日照时数随纬度升高而呈增加趋势（r=0．902，P=0．000）；不同纬度日照时数与年降水量间呈显著负相关（r=-0．902，P=0．000）。淮安和济南气象代表站1951～2008年1月份气温变化曲线均与时间变量（年份）呈线性上升趋势；而1970～2008年降水量与时间变量（年份）则不存在线性关系；东线各气象台站年平均最高气温与年降水量间均呈显著负相关；徐州以北年降水量均〈750mm，而且随着纬度的增加，北方降水量更为减少。资料分析还表明东线钉螺分布和居民粪检阳性率与气温、降水、日照等气候要素无明显相关。结论南水北调东线气温正趋于变暖，但降水量却随气温的升高而呈减少趋势，未来东线气候变化可能并不完全满足钉螺北移和血吸虫病流行区向北扩展的气候条件。

Potential effect of climate changes on schistosomiasis japonica transmission in east route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Objective To elucidate the potential effect of climate changes on schistosomiasis japonica transmission in the east route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Methods The ground meteorological and epidemiological data of schistosomiasis from the weather stations in the east route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project were collected and analyzed. The characteristics and change trend of the temperature, rainfall, sunshine hour in different latitudes in the east route were analyzed by the statistics method of the correlation and regression analysis. The effect of climate changes on the rainfall and schistosomiasis transmission in the east route were evaluated. Results There was a significant negative correlation between the latitudes and annual mean temperature（ 1 ）, annual mean maximum temperature （2）, annual mean minimal temperature （3） , annual extremely lowest temperature（4）, annual average relative humidity（5 ） and annual precipitation （6） in many years in different latitudes in the east route, respectively （r1 = - 0. 849, P =0. 000 ; r2 = - 0.776, P = 0. 003 ; r3 = - 0. 806, P = 0.002 ; r4 = - 0. 798, P = 0. 002 ; r5 = - 0. 883, P = 0.000 ; r6 = - 0. 961, P = 0. 000）. There was a significant correlation between the latitudes and annual sunshine hour in many years in different latitudes in the east route （ r = 0. 902, P = 0. 000 ）. There was a significant negative correlation between the annual sunshine hour and annual precipitation in different latitudes in the east route （r = -0. 902, P = 0. 000）. The change tend of the mean January temperature was linearly increased with years, from 1951 to 2008, but there was no linear relationship between the annual precipitation and the years, from 1970 to 2008, in Huaian and Jinan weather stations. There was a
significant negative correlation between the annual maximum temperature and annual precipitation in the weather stations in the east route. The annual precipitation was less than 750 mm in the northern Xuzhou,