脑卒中发病与环境因素的相关性分析

目的:分析脑卒中发病与环境因素的关系,提出预防脑卒中的建议和方案。方法:选用2012年"高教社"杯全国大学生数学建模竞赛C题的数据,数据来源于中国某城市各家医院2007年1月²010年12月的脑卒中发病病例信息以及相应期间当地的逐日气象资料。用Excel和SPSS9.1软件统计发病人群在不同性别、年龄、职业的分布情况,建立广义线性混合模型,用SAS 9.2版本中的glimmix过程做广义线性混合模型分析。结果:统计分析发现,20072010年12月的脑卒中发病病例信息以及相应期间当地的逐日气象资料。用Excel和SPSS9.1软件统计发病人群在不同性别、年龄、职业的分布情况,建立广义线性混合模型,用SAS 9.2版本中的glimmix过程做广义线性混合模型分析。结果:统计分析发现,2007²010年间该地区脑卒中发病男女比值平均为1.173,发病人群年龄呈偏态分布,发病人群职业集中在农民、退休人员及工人。另外,统计分析结果还表明平均气压与发病数呈正相关(P<0.05),平均气温与发病数呈负相关(P<0.05),平均湿度与发病数呈负相关(P<0.05)。结论:冬季气压偏高、温度低、空气干燥是脑中卒的发病高峰期,所以冬季高血压等疾病患者应积极采取预防措施。同时,医疗卫生部门应加强疾病的宣传与治疗,降低脑卒中发病率、致残率、死亡率。

Correlation Analysis of Stroke Incidence and Environmental Factors

Objective： To analyze the relationship between the incidence of stroke and environmental fac- tors, put forward the suggestions and strategies for the prevention of stroke. Methods： From 2012 ＂higher education press＂ Cup National Undergraduate Mathematical Contest in modeling problem of C data, daily weather data in local data sources in Chinese hospitals of a certain city in January 2007 to December 2010, the incidence of stroke case information and the corresponding period. Using Excel and SPSS9. 1 software statis- tical population distribution in different gender, age, occupation, a generalized linear mixed model, general- ized linear mixed model analysis with the glimmix process in SAS version 9. 2. Results： The statistical analy- sis found that in the area of stroke incidence ratio for an average of 1. 173 for men and women in 2007 to 2010. The incidence age showed a skewed distribution, population concentrated in the occupation, retired staff and workers. In addition, the statistical analysis results also show that the average pressure associated with the incidence of positive （P~0. 05）, and negatively correlated with mean air temperature and the num- ber of （P~O. 05）, and negatively correlated with mean relative humidity and the number （P~O. 05）. Con- clusion. In the winter low temperature, high pressure, air drying is the peak incidence in the patients with cerebral stroke, so winter diseases such as hypertension should actively take preventive measures; at the same time, the medical and health departments should strengthen the propaganda and treatment of disease, reduce the incidence of stroke, mortality, disability rate.