5种系统疾病住院医疗费用的时间序列分析与预测

以其三级甲等医院１９９３年第１季度￣１９９９年第３季住院前１０位系统疾病中相重叠的５种系统疾病的出院病例为样本，采用时间序列分析方法，对系统疾病平均住院医疗费用进行分析与预测。结果表明，５种系统疾病平均住院医疗费用从１９９３年第１季度到１９９９５年第３季度到１９９５年第４季度沿着较快速上升的趋势波动，接着便衰减并逐渐下降或呈现季节性变化。预测显示１９９９年第３季度到２０００年第４季度病种平均住院医

Analysis and Forecast of Medical Fees of the Top 5 Economy Diseases in Order of Inpatients Proportions by Time Series

selected the 5 economy diseases overlapped in the 10 economy diseases in order of out - hospital patients in a grade A tertiary hospital from the first quarter in 1993 to the third quarter in 1999 as sample, and used time series to study and forecast average medical fees of hospitalized diseases. Results indicated that average medical fees of inpaitents fluctuated along the trend risen rapidly frome the first quarter in 1993 to the forth quarter in 1995, and then fell slowly or showed seasonal change. Forecast showed that average medical fees of diseases will continue to be fallen slowly from the third quarter in 1999 to the forth quarter in 2000. The change of medical fees of diseases must be forecasted as accurate as possible, in order to make the control of payment nom of medical insurance more exact in actualization the reform of medical insurance system.