Burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030 |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China;2. Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China;3. Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China;4. Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China;1. Department of Medical Genetics, Institute of Mother and Child, Warsaw, Poland;2. Center for Exocrine Disorders, Department of Molecular and Cell Biology, Boston University, Henry M. Goldman School of Dental Medicine, Boston, MA, 02118, United States;3. Pediatric Nutritional Medicine & Else Kröner-Fresenius-Centre for Nutritional Medicine EKFZ, Technical University Munich TUM, Freising, Germany;4. Univ Brest, Inserm, EFS, UMR 1078, GGB, F-29200, Brest, France;5. Service de Génétique Médicale et de Biologie de la Reproduction, CHRU Brest, F-29200, Brest, France;6. Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan;7. Institute of Transfusion Medicine and Immunology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, German Red Cross Blood Service of Baden-Württemberg, Mannheim, Germany;8. Department of Gastroenterology and Pancreatology, CHU Rangueil and University of Toulouse, Toulouse, France;9. Institute of Computer Science, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland;10. Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Feeding Disorders and Pediatrics, The Children''s Memorial Health Institute, Warsaw, Poland;11. Department of Biophysics, Institute of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland;12. Department of Medical Genetics, Medical University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland;13. Collegium Medicum, Jan Kochanowski University of Kielce, Poland;14. Department of Internal Medicine I, Martin Luther University, Halle, Germany;15. Department of Pediatric, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden;p. Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden;q. Pancreatology and Digestive Oncology Department, Beaujon Hospital, Clichy, APHP, Université de Paris, Paris, France;r. Heim Pál National Pediatric Institute, Budapest, Hungary;s. Institute for Translational Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary;t. Center for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary;u. Division of Pancreatic Diseases, Heart and Vascular Center, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary;v. Department of Surgery, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States;1. Pharmacy Department, University of North Carolina Medical Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA;2. Pharmacy Department, Michigan Medicine, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;3. Department of Nutrition and Food Services, University of North Carolina Medical Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA;4. Department of Surgery, Transplant, University of North Carolina Medical Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA;1. Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic Arizona, USA;2. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic Arizona, USA;1. Division of Surgery, CLINTEC, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden;2. Department of Surgery and Perioperative Sciences, Surgery, Umeå University Hospital, Umeå, Sweden;3. Pancreatic Surgery Unit, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Centre, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, IRCCS, Milan, Italy;4. Pancreatobiliary Endoscopy and EUS Division, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Centre, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, IRCCS, Milan, Italy;5. Division of Surgery, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden;6. Digestive and Liver Disease Unit, Sant''Andrea Hospital, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy;7. Department of Surgical Oncology, Anschutz Medical Campus, University of Colorado, Denver, USA;8. Department for Upper Abdominal Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital and Department of Medicine Huddinge, Karolinska Institute, Sweden;1. The Health and Rehabilitation Research Institute, School of Clinical Sciences, Faculty of Health and Environmental Sciences, Auckland University of Technology (AUT), Auckland, New Zealand;2. The Auckland Regional Pain Service (TARPS), Auckland District Health Board (ADHB), Auckland, New Zealand;3. The Pain Management Unit, Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Waitematā District Health Board (WDHB), Auckland, New Zealand;4. Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, University of Auckland, New Zealand;5. Centre for Pancreatic Diseases & Mech-Sense, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark;6. Department of Internal Medicine, Randers Regional Hospital, Randers, Denmark;7. Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark;8. Department of Psychological Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, University of Auckland, New Zealand;9. Department of General Surgery, Counties Manukau District Health Board (CMDHB), Auckland, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | ObjectivesUnderstanding epidemiology trends and patterns of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicting the burden to 2030 will provide foundations for future policies development.MethodsWe collected incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to depict the trends of pancreatic cancer burden and predicted the incidence and mortality in the next decade by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.ResultsThe number of incident cases sharply increased from 26.77 thousand in 1990 to 114.96 thousand in 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) nearly doubled from 3.17 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.78 per 100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 2.32 (95% confidence interval CI]: 2.12, 2.51). The mortality and DALYs presented a similar pattern with incidence. The dominant risk factor for pancreatic cancer was smoking, but the contribution of high body-mass index increased from 1990 to 2019. We projected that the incident cases and deaths of pancreatic cancer would increase to 218.79 thousand and 222.97 thousand, respectively, in 2030 with around 2 times growth.ConclusionsDuring the past three decades, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of pancreatic cancer gradually increased in China, and the absolute number and rate of pancreatic cancer burden would continue to rise over the next decade. Comprehensive policies and strategies need to be implemented to reduce the incidence and mortality. |
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| Keywords: | Pancreatic cancer China Change trend Risk factors Projection |
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