武汉市江汉区细菌性痢疾发病率的ARIMA模型预测应用

目的：探讨A RIM A模型在武汉市江汉区细菌性痢疾月发病率预测应用的可行性，为该区细菌性痢疾的防控提供科学参考依据。方法使用SAS9．2软件对2005～2013年该区菌痢月发病资料拟合ARIMA模型，利用建立的模型对2014年1～6月菌痢月发病率资料进行预测和效果评价。结果建立ARIMA（0，1，1）X（0，1，1）12模型拟合效果较好，预测2014年上半年疫情将呈缓慢上升趋势，预测值与实际值拟合趋势基本一致。结论 A RIM A模型可以作为该区菌痢月发病水平的短期预测模型。

Application of ARIMA model to forecasting bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan City

Objective To explore the feasibility of the application of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model to forcast the monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan ,and to provide scientific references for prevention and control .Methods SAS 9 .2 software was used to fit the ARIMA model for the monthly incidence rate of bacil‐lary dysentery from 2005 to 2013 .Thereafter ,the fitted model was used to forecast the data from January to June in 2014 ,and was evaluated by comparing the actual incidence .Results The ARIMA(0 ,1 ,1)X(0 ,1 ,1)12 model had a better fitted effect ,it was pre‐dicted that the incidence of bacillary dysentery of Jianghan District of Wuhan City from January to June 2014 would increase slight‐ly ,and the forecast data of bacillary dysentery from January 2005 to December 2013 consisted with the actual situation .Conclusion ARIM A model can be used as short‐term forecasting model to predict the monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan .