Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region |
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| Authors: | Björn Wettermark Marie E Persson Nils Wilking Mats Kalin Seher Korkmaz Paul Hjemdahl Brian Godman Max Petzold Lars L Gustafsson the Regional Drug Expert Consortium in Stockholm County Council |
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| Affiliation: | (1) Department of Drug Management and Informatics, Stockholm County Council, Stockholm, Sweden;(2) Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Karolinska Institutet at Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge, Stockholm, Sweden;(3) Department of Oncology and Pathology, Karolinska Insitutet, Stockholm, Sweden;(4) Department of Infectious diseases, Karolinska University Hospital Solna, Stockholm, Sweden;(5) Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine Solna, Karolinska Institutet at Karolinska University Hospital Solna, Stockholm, Sweden;(6) Mario Negri Institute, Milan, Italy;(7) Nordic School of Public Health, Gothenburg, Sweden |
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| Abstract: | Background New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning), forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011. |
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