一种基于流感哨点监测的流感预警分析方法

目的 探讨利用流行性感冒(流感)哨点监测网络数据开展流感流行的预警方法。 方法 选择流感监测质量较稳定的年份,计算各周相应的流感样病例(ILI)占哨点监测医院门诊就诊病例总数的比例(ILI%)和流感病毒检出阳性率及两者的相关性,利用流感病毒检出阳性率超过流行季峰值的40%界定流行高峰,换算出相应的ILI%预警阈值开展流感疫情预警工作。 结果 舟山市2010年全年门诊就诊的ILI%平均为1.62%(95%CI:1.43%~1.82%),流感病毒检出阳性率平均为26.77%(95%CI:20.06%~33.49%),流感高峰出现时的流感病毒检出阳性率界值为32.31%,换算成ILI%=1.73%作为流感疫情预警阈值。 结论 利用ILI%作为流感疫情的预警指标简单易行、灵敏特异,适用于建立运行流感样病例监测点的基层机构开展流感预警工作。

Early warning of influenza epidemic based on influenza sentinel surveillance

Objective To explorer the method of early warning of influenza epidemic based on influenza sentinel surveillance.Methods The Influenza-like illness(ILI) proportion of total outpatients and the positive rate of Influenza viruses for every week of a year in sentinel hospital were calculated.The correlation between them were analyzed.The threshold of ILI proportion for Influenza epidemic early warning were calculated by using the positive rate in peak season when it passed 40% of the maximum seasonal level.Res...