Modelling the Impact of Reducing Ultra-Processed Foods Based on the NOVA Classification in Australian Women of Reproductive Age

Women of reproductive age have a high proportion of overweight/obesity and an overall poor nutritional intake and diet quality. Nutritional modelling is a method to forecast potential changes in nutrition composition that may offer feasible and realistic changes to dietary intake. This study uses simulation modelling to estimate feasible population improvements in dietary profile by reducing ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption in Australian women of reproductive age. The simulation used weighted data from the most recent 2011–2012 National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. A total of 2749 women aged 19–50 years was included, and 5740 foods were examined. The highest daily energy, saturated fat, and added sugar and sodium came from UPF. Reducing UPF by 50% decreased energy intake by 22%, and saturated fat, added sugar, sodium, and alcohol by 10–39%. Reducing UPF by 50% and increasing unprocessed or minimally processed foods by 25% led to a lower estimated reduction in energy and greater estimated reductions in saturated fat and sodium. Replacement of 50% UPF with 75% of unprocessed or minimally processed foods led to smaller estimated reductions in energy and nutrients. Our results provide insight as to the potential impact of population reductions in UPF, but also increasing intake of unprocessed or minimally processed foods, which may be the most feasible strategy for improved nutritional intake.