胰胆系恶性肿瘤预测的临床多因素分析

目的探讨临床常规检查项目对胰胆系恶性肿瘤的预测价值，寻找客观、简便、无创、定量的指标，确定胰胆系恶性肿瘤预测的最佳指征。方法收集222例行ERCP检查患者的临床资料，包括临床表现、生化检查、B型超声检查等，进行回顾性研究；单因素分析确定最佳的预测指标，根据原始计量资料的数据对检测结果作图绘制ROC曲线，找出其临床诊断界值。结果对胰胆系恶性肿瘤有预测价值的指标为CEA、CA125、CA199、胆总管直径、TBA，截断点CA199为106．62IU／mL，CA125为18．15IU／mL，CEA为2．7μg／L，胆总管直径为1．35cm，TBA为14．65μmol／L。结论常规检查项目对胰胆系恶性肿瘤有预测价值，综合考虑CA199、CEA、胆总管直径、TBA、CA125等相关指标，分析每个指标的截断点，对预测胰胆系恶性肿瘤具有重要意义。

Clinical multivariate analysis of pancreaticobiliary malignancies prediction

Objective It is to approach the predictive value of clinical routine examination on pancreaticobiliary malignancies, finding an objective, simple, noninvasive and quantitative indicators, and defining the optimal indications for pancreaticobiliary malignancies prediction. Methods The clinical data of 222 cases of ERCP were collected to carry on retrospective study, including clinical manifestations, biochemical tests, and B - mode ultrasound ; the best predictor were determine by univariate analysis, and the ROC curve with test results based on the data of the original measurement data was drew in order to identify the cut off value of clinical diagnosis. Results Pancreaticobiliary malignancies predictive value of indicators as follows： CEA, CA125, CA199, Common bile duct diameter, TBA, and their cut-off points as follows： CA199 was 106.62 IU/mL, CA125 was 18.15 IU/mL, CEA was 2.7 tzg/L, Common bile duct diameter was 1. 35 cm, TBA was 14.65 Ixmol/L. Conclusion Routine examination has predictive value on pancreaticobiliary malignancies. IT has important significance for pancreati- cobiliary malignancies prediction to comprehensive consideration the correlation index as CA199, CEA, common bile duct diameter, TBA and CA125, and analyze the truncation point for each indicator.