| Logistic回归模型拟合SARS发病及流行特征 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 黄德生,关鹏,周宝森.Logistic回归模型拟合SARS发病及流行特征[J].中国公共卫生,2003,19(6):T1-T2. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 黄德生 关鹏 周宝森 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国医科大学基础医学院数学教研室,沈阳,110001
2. 中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病教研室,沈阳,110001 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 目的利用Logistic回归模型预测SARS发病及流行趋势,研究SARS发病与流行特征及相应预防措施对疾病流行的影响,为预防与控制SARS提供科学依据.方法使用Logistic回归模型拟合广东省、香港特别行政区、北京市及山西省累计发病数据,并绘制出SARS流行曲线.结果对上述地区发病人数进行拟合,各地曲线拟合的决定系数R2均大于0.99,预测值与实际值符合,无显著性差异.从SARS流行曲线推算出各地发病高峰及时间分布,预防措施对疾病流行曲线有明显影响.结论 Logistic回归模型对SARS流行的拟合效果好,可用于理论上探讨预防措施对SARS发病及流行特征的研究.
|
| 关 键 词： | SARS Logistic回归模型 曲线拟合 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-0580(2003)06-00T1-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年5月19日 |
Fitness of morbidity and discussion of epidemic characteristics of SARS based on logistic models |
| |
| HUANG De sheng,GUAN Peng,ZHOU Bao sen.China Medical University.Fitness of morbidity and discussion of epidemic characteristics of SARS based on logistic models[J].Chinese Journal of Public Health,2003,19(6):T1-T2. |
| |
| Authors: | HUANG De sheng GUAN Peng ZHOU Bao senChina Medical University |
| |
| Abstract: | Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics and trend of SARS and study these characteristics and corresponding prevention measures to the influence of the epidemic of SARS and provide evidence for the prevention and control by using logistic models.Methods Logistic model was used to fit the cumulative incidence of Guangzhou,HongKong,Beijing and Shanxi.Incidence curve was drawn from the models.Results The models got good fitting results,all determination coefficients are more than 0.99 .The predicted values accord with the true values well and there is no statistical significance between them.The time distribution can be calculated and the influence of preventive measures are discussed.Conclusion Logistic models got very good fitness results and can be used to study the influence of preventive measures to the occurrence and epidemic characteristics of SARS in theory. |
| |
| Keywords: | severe acute respiratory syndrome logistic model curve fitness |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
