Baseline level and change in serum albumin concentration and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes

Aims

We aimed to determine whether baseline level and change in serum albumin concentration are predictive of future development of type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Methods

A total of 15,428 subjects (8764 men and 6664 women) without diabetes at baseline, aged 21–88 years (mean age of 51.0 years), were enrolled from a health screening program.

Results

During the 5-year follow-up period, a total of 599 incident cases (3.9%) of T2D developed. Higher baseline serum albumin concentration was associated with increased T2D risk, independent of age, sex, or body mass index; however, this association was confounded and was not significant after further adjustment for other T2D risk factors. Compared with subjects in the lowest tertile of change in serum albumin concentration, subjects in the highest tertile showed a lower risk for T2D development, independent of risk factors for T2D and baseline serum albumin concentration [OR (95% CI), 0.30 (0.21–0.43), p for trend < 0.001].

Conclusion

Higher baseline serum albumin concentration was not an independent risk factor of future T2D, whereas an increase in serum albumin concentration was independently associated with a lower diabetes risk.