泉州市2005—2011年肾综合征出血热流行特征与趋势预测研究

目的分析泉州市。肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的发病规律，以建立趋势预测模型。方法收集疫情报告资料、病例个案调查和实验室结果，用SPSS16．0统计软件进行X2检验，利用发病率建立灰色系统GM（1，1）预测模型，P〈O．05为差异有统计学意义。结果泉州市在2005—2011年间共发生。肾综合征出血热病例127例，呈逐年上升，差异有统计学意义（X2=85．081，P〈0．01），无暴发疫情和死亡病例报告。发病人群多见于男性和青壮年，分别占总数的74．80％（95／127）和57．48％（73／127），职业分布中农民和民工多发，共占61．42％（78／127）；HFRS区域特征明显，沿海地区发病率（86／34721861）显著高于山区（31／15454545）和中心城区（31／9075792），差异有统计学意义（X2=6．531，P〈0．05），农村（53／122）高于城市（24／122），病例发病地点以租赁房或自建房为主，占94．26％（115／122）。时间分布为11月至次年5月，但近几年来发病季节性特点渐趋不明显，有常年化发病倾向，但差异无统计学意义（X2=2．551，P〉O．05）。建立的GM（1，1）预测模型对于泉州市的。肾综合征出血热发病趋势预测效果较好。结论泉州市。肾综合征出血热疫情近年有重新抬头趋势，应加强对高发地区和发病率上升较快地区的高危人群进行监测。

Epidemiological features and trend analysis of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Quanzhou in 2005--2011

Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of epidemic hemorrhagic fever （HFRS） in Quanzhou and to establish the trend forecasting model in order to provide scientific basis for developing preven- tive strategies. Methods Chi-square test through Spss16.0 statistical software was used to analyze the data of HFRS cases collected in the National Disease Prevention and Control System and local laboratory. Gray GM （1, 1） Predication Model was established to predict the morbidity of the following years. Results A total of 127 HFRS cases were reported from 2005 to 2011 and the number of patients increased annually （X2=85. 081, P=0. 000） . There was no outbreak or death reported. Of all cases, 74.80% （95/127） were males, 57.48% （73/127） were young adults and 61.41% （78/127） were migrant laborers. The incidence of HFRS in coastal regions （86/34721861） was significantly higher than that in mountainous areas （1/15454545） and center city （31/9075792） （X2 =6. 531, P=0. 038）, and was also higher in rural areas （53/122） than that in urban areas （24/122） . Most cases （94.26O/oo） appeared in rental or their own houses and occurred from November to May, but in recent years, HFRS seasonal characteristic was not obvious （X2= 2. 551, P=0. 110） . The Gray GM （1, 1 ） Predication Model established to forecast the trend of HFRS was proved to be effective. Conclusions The incidence of HFRS in Quanzhou is found to be increasing in recent years, therefore, the monitoring of HFRS in the high-risk population in the areas with rapidly rising prevalence should be enhanced.