2015-2020年陕西省主要慢性病早死概率

目的 分析2015-2020年陕西省4类主要慢性非传染性疾病(心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病,简称慢性病)的死亡情况、早死概率、变化趋势,以及预测陕西省"健康中国2030"主要慢性病早死概率目标的实现情况.方法 利用2015-2020年陕西省死因监测数据,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、构成比、早死概率、平...

Analysis on major chronic diseases on the probability of premature death in Shaanxi Province,2015-2020

  Objective  The study aimed to analyze the mortality, probability of premature death and change trend of four major chronic diseases (cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes) in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2020, and predicting the realization of the goal of "Healthy China 2030" for major chronic diseases on probability of premature death.  Methods  Using the monitoring data of death causes in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2020, the crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, constituent ratio, probability of early death, average growth rate, predicted value of probability of early death and target value of probability of early death were calculated. χ2 test was used for comparison of mortality rates, and annual percentage change (APC) was used for analysis of trends.  Results  From 2015 to 2020, the death rate of four major chronic diseases accounted for more than 83.00% of the total death rate and more than 94.00% of the death rate of chronic diseases in Shaanxi Province. The crude mortality of the four major chronic diseases in the total population, male and female subgroup showed an upward trend (APC=2.02%, male APC=2.12%, female APC=1.92%), and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend (APC=-2.96%, male APC=-2.47%, female APC=-3.54%), with statistical significance (all P < 0.05). The crude mortality of four major chronic diseases in male was higher than that in female over the years, with statistical significance (all P < 0.001). From 2015 to 2020, the probability of premature death of four major chronic diseases in the total population, male and female showed a decreasing trend (total population APC=-1.78%, male APC=-1.19%, female APC=-3.05%), and the trend test showed statistical significance (all P < 0.05). In the past 6 years, the probability of premature death of the total population, male and female in Shaanxi Province decreased by 1.98%, 1.34% and 3.43%, respectively. According to the prediction of the decline rate, the probability of premature death of the total population and male in Shaanxi Province will not reach the target value of "Healthy China 2030" by 2030, but female can reach the target.  Conclusions  From 2015 to 2020, the standardized mortality rate and the probability of premature death of four major chronic diseases in Shaanxi Province had declined. The probability of premature death of the total population and male cannot achieve the target value. It is suggested to further strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control of chronic diseases, targeted intervention measures, to promote "Healthy China 2030" goal.