2016年5月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2016年5月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据既往传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,预计5月全国报告事件数和病例数将继续呈上升态势,可能达到全年最高峰。近期我国仍有可能出现寨卡病毒病、登革热、黄热病、基孔肯雅热等蚊媒传染病的输入性病例,广东、云南、海南、福建、广西和浙江等重点省份存在输入后发生本地传播的可能。全国手足口病流行强度将逐渐进入高峰,重症和死亡病例将逐渐增多。人感染禽流感疫情仍可能呈散发态势。食物中毒事件将逐渐上升。结论 2016年5月我国的突发公共卫生事件可能达到全年的最高峰;需重点关注伊蚊媒介传染病(如寨卡病毒病、登革热、黄热病、基孔肯雅热)和手足口病所引发的公共卫生风险。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China,May 2016

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in May 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in May would be highest in 2016. It is possible to detect more imported cases of mosquito-borne diseases, such as Zika virus disease, dengue, yellow fever, Chikungunya fever in China, and Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, Guangxi and Zhejiang provinces might be at risk of local transmission after the importation. The incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) would increase gradually, including severe and death cases. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza virus might occur. The incidence of food poisoning would increase gradually. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in May would be at the highest level in 2016. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases, such as Zika virus disease, dengue, yellow fever, Chikungunya fever, and HFMD.