2016年2月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2016年2月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,2月将是2016年突发公共卫生事件报告数最少的月份。近期我国内地将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感以及其他亚型动物流感病毒病例的散发病例。季节性流感处于高发期,2月可能达到高峰。我国存在寨卡病毒病输入的风险;但目前我国处于冬季,伊蚊密度低,即使有病例输入,疫情传播风险低。我国依然仍存在中东呼吸综合征输入风险,但进一步播散的风险低。因取暖方式不当导致的非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将持续高发。结论 2016年2月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年最低水平;需重点关注人感人禽流感、季节性流感和寨卡病毒病所引发的公共卫生风险。

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in mainland China,February 2016

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in February 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in February would be the lowest in 2016. More cases of human infection with influenza A (H7N9) virus would occur, and sporadic cases of human infection with other animal influenza virus might also occur. The activity of seasonal influenza would be at high level and might reach the peak in February. It is possible to detect imported cases of Zika virus disease in China, but the risk of its further transmission is very low because of the low density of Aedes in winter. The risk of importation of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) to China still exists, but the possibility of MERS's large-scale transmission is very low. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by improper coal-fired heating would continue to be high. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be the lowest in February 2016, similar to that during the same period in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, and Zika virus disease.