2016年1月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2016年1月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息, 采用专家会商法, 并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据, 结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析, 1月将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较少的月份之一, 预计全国总报告事件数和病例数将较2015年12月有所下降。近期我国内地将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例, 不排除出现人感染其他亚型动物流感病毒病例的可能。流行性感冒、水痘、流行性腮腺炎等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。近期, 中东呼吸综合征在沙特仍持续有散发病例报告, 我国仍存在输入风险, 但进一步播散的风险极低。因燃煤取暖导致的非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将持续高发。结论 2016年1月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似, 处于全年较低水平;需关注人禽流感、流行性感冒、中东呼吸综合征等传染病疫情以及非职业性一氧化碳中毒引发的公共卫生风险。

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in mainland China,January 2016

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in January 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of infectious diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidences of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be low in January 2016, lower than that in December 2015. Sporadic cases of human infection with H7N9 virus would continue to occur, and sporadic cases of other human infection of animal influenza virus might also occur. The activity of seasonal influenza, varicella, mumps and other respiratory diseases would increase seasonally. The risk of importation of MERS to China still exists, but the possibility of the large-scale transmission in China is very low. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by coal-fired heating would continue to be high. Conclusion The incidences of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in January 2016 would be low, similar to those during the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of human infection of avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, MERS, and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.