基于空间点模式分析全球高致病性禽流感H5N1的空间分布特征

目的 探索全球高致病性禽流感（highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI）H5N1疫情的空间分布特征，识别高风险聚集区，为禽流感疫情监测、发展趋势提供科学依据。方法 收集和整理世界动物卫生组织和粮农组织疫情监测报告中的2004年1月～2009年12月间的 HPAI H5N1疫情，运用空间扫描统计量和空间聚类方法分析全球HPAI H5N1的空间分布。结果 空间扫描统计量分析显示疫情呈现非随机分布的特征，在空间分布上存在聚集性，共检测出15个高风险聚集区，主要集中在中欧、南欧、非洲东北部地区以及亚洲的东南部地区。空间聚类分析显示高风险聚集区主要集中于欧洲的德国、法国、瑞士和意大利，以及亚洲的东南部地区。结论 全球HPAI H5N1呈现空间聚集分布，高风险聚集区主要位于中欧、南欧以及东南亚，为重点监控区域。候鸟迁徙可能是跨洲远距离传播的重要途径。

Spatial distribution characteristics of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 based on the spatial point pattern analysis

Objective To explore the spatial distribution characteristics and identify high risk clusters, so as to provide scientific evidence for epidemic surveillance and trends of avian influenza H5N1. Methods H5N1 outbreak reported to World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN from January 2004 to December 2009 were collected. Spatial scan statistics and spatial clustering analysis were used to analyze the spatial distribution of HPAI H5N1. Results Spatial scan statistics showed that the epidemic distribution was non-random. 15 high risk clusters were detected, which were mainly concentrated in Central and Southern Europe, the Northeast of Africa, and the Southeast of Asia. Spatial clustering analysis showed that high risk clusters were mainly concentrated in Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy, and Southeast Asia region. Conclusions Clustering of H5N1 outbreaks was confirmed in this study, and high risk clusters were mainly concentrated in the Central and Southern Europe and the Southeast of Asia,where enhanced surveillance should be conducted. Birds migration may play a key role in H5N1 spreading across continents over a long distance.