Modeling and presentation of vaccination coverage estimates using data from household surveys |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Health Sciences Building, NE Pacific St, Seattle, WA 98195, USA;2. Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Padelford Hall, NE Stevens Way, Seattle, WA 98195, USA |
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Abstract: | It is becoming increasingly popular to produce high-resolution maps of vaccination coverage by fitting Bayesian geostatistical models to data from household surveys. Usually, the surveys adopt a stratified cluster sampling design. We discuss a number of crucial choices with respect to two key aspects of the map production process: the acknowledgement of the survey design in modeling, and the appropriate presentation of estimates and their uncertainties. Specifically, we consider the importance of accounting for urban/rural stratification and cluster-level non-spatial excess variation in survey outcomes, when fitting geostatistical models. We also discuss the trade-off between the geographical scale and precision of model-based estimates, and demonstrate visualization methods for mapping and ranking that emphasize the probabilistic interpretation of results. A novel approach to coverage map presentation is proposed to allow comparison and control of the overall map uncertainty. We use measles vaccination coverage in Nigeria as a motivating example and illustrate the different issues using data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. |
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Keywords: | Vaccination coverage High-resolution maps Uncertainty Bayesian model-based geostatistics Small area estimation Survey sampling |
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