常州市大气细颗粒物对老年人死亡影响的时间序列研究

目的 分析常州市大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)暴露对老年人死亡的影响。方法 收集常州市2015年1月1日至2017年12月31日的居民全死因个案资料和同期常州市大气污染物浓度及气象监测资料,采用广义线性模型(GLM)在控制长期趋势、星期几效应及气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,分析PM2.5对老年人(≥65岁)死亡的影响。结果 2015-2017年常州市大气PM2.5浓度均值为50.0μg/m³,超标天数共178天,老年人每日非意外总死亡54.6例,其中呼吸系统疾病日死亡7.7例,循环系统疾病日死亡22.1例。在单污染物模型中,大气PM2.5浓度(lag04)每增加10μg/m³时,老年人日非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病日死亡数分别增加0.92%(95%CI:0.29%～1.56%)、1.66%(95%CI:0.10%～3.31%)和1.22%(95%CI:0.24%～2.22%)。多污染物模型中,单独调整SO2、NO2或同时调整SO2和NO2后,PM2.5对老年人非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病死亡的影响效应消失(P>0.05)。结论 常州市大气PM2.5污染对老年人死亡影响有一定的时间滞后性,显著增加老年人日非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病死亡数。

Effect of fine particulate matter on daily mortality in the aged people in Changzhou City:a time-series study

Objective To analysis the effects of fine particulate matter(PM2.5)on daily mortality in the aged people in Changzhou City.Methods The data of daily major air pollutants concentrations,meteorological monitoring factors and the death cases of residents from January 1,2015 to December 31,2017 were collected in Changzhou city.Poisson regression generalized linear model(GLM)was developed to analyse the effects of PM2.5 on the death of the aged people on the basis of controlling the confounding factors such as long-term trend,“days of the week” effect and meteorological factors.Results From 2015 to 2017,the average annual concentration of atmospheric PM2.5 in Changzhou was 50.0μg/m³.The days of exceeding the standard were 178 days.The daily average values of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality were 54.6 persons,7.7 persons and 22.1 persons in the aged people,respectively.In the single pollutant model,when the atmospheric PM2.5 concentration(lag04)increased 10μg/m³,the daily number of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality increased by 0.92%(95%CI:0.29% to 1.56%),1.66%(95%CI:0.10% to 3.31%)and 1.22%(95%CI:0.24% to 2.22%).As for the multi-pollutant model,the effect of PM2.5 on daily mortality disappeared(P>0.05)after individually or simultaneously introducing SO2 and NO2.Conclusion The atmospheric PM2.5 concentration has a certain lag adverse effect on the daily mortality of the aged people and significantly increases the daily number of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality in Changzhou City.