敏感问题Simmons模型的分层随机抽样的统计方法

目的在分层随机抽样下,为敏感性问题提供科学的调查方法及其统计量的计算公式。方法应用敏感问题随机应答技术的Simmons模型、分层随机抽样调查方法、Cochran＇s的抽样理论、全概率公式、方差的基本性质等理论和方法进行公式推导。结果推导出敏感问题Simmons模型在分层随机抽样下总体比例的估计量及其估计方差的计算公式;成功地应用该方法及相关公式调查估计得苏州大学新校区本科生和研究生婚前性行为的发生比例分别为14.90%和31.94%,总体比例为20.86%;将样本比例与效度准则指标比较,差异无统计学意义（P〉0.05）。结论敏感问题随机应答技术Simmons模型的分层随机抽样方法及相应统计量的计算公式科学有效。

Stratified Random Sampling on Simmons Model for Sensitive Question Survey

Objective To explore scientific sampling methods and corresponding formulas for sensitive question survey on stratified random sampling.Methods Simmons model for dichotomous sensitive questions,stratified random sampling,Cochran＇s classic sampling theories,total probability formulas and properties of variance were used to deduce corresponding formulas.Results Formulas for the estimation of the population proportions and its variance on Simmons model for dichotomous sensitive questions in stratified random sampling were deduced respectively and corresponding survey methods and formulas were successfully designed and applied in the survey of premarital sexual behavior among students at soochow university in which the estimated proportion of premarital sexual behavior for undergraduate and graduate was 14.90% and 31.94% respectively and 20.86% for overall.Comparing with standard method,high validity was proved（P〉 0.05）.Conclusion The methods and corresponding formulas on Simmons model in stratified random sampling are feasible.